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An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network

Wilby, RL and Noone, S and Murphy, C and Matthews, TR and Harrigan, S and Broderick, C (2015) An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 1097-0088

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Abstract

This paper investigates the spatial and temporal properties of persistent meteorological droughts using the homogeneous Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network. Relative to a 1961-1990 baseline period it is shown that the longest observed run of below average precipitation since the 1850s lasted up to 5 years (10 half-year seasons) at sites in southeast and east Ireland, or 3 years across the network as a whole. Dry- and wet-spell length distributions were represented by a first-order Markov model which yields realistic runs of below average rainfall for individual sites and IIP series. This model shows that there is relatively high likelihood (p=0.125) of a 5 year dry-spell at Dublin, and that near unbroken dry runs of 10 years or more are conceivable. We suggest that the IIP network and attendant rainfall deficit modelling provide credible data for stress testing water supply and drought plans under extreme conditions.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Wilby, R. L., Noone, S., Murphy, C., Matthews, T., Harrigan, S. and Broderick, C. (2015), An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network. Int. J. Climatol., which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4523. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving
Uncontrolled Keywords: 0401 Atmospheric Sciences, 0905 Civil Engineering, 0907 Environmental Engineering
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Q Science > QC Physics
Divisions: Natural Sciences and Psychology
Publisher: Wiley
Date Deposited: 27 Apr 2016 10:35
Last Modified: 19 Oct 2016 23:50
URI: http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/1962

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