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Measures of Bayesian Reasoning Performance on "Normal' and "Natural' Frequency Tasks

Stock, R and Fisk, JE and Montgomery, C (2016) Measures of Bayesian Reasoning Performance on "Normal' and "Natural' Frequency Tasks. Journal of General Psychology, 143 (3). pp. 185-214. ISSN 0022-1309

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Abstract

While the majority of similar studies examining Bayesian reasoning investigate how participants avoid common errors such as base-rate neglect, the current research also examines whether different formats (frequency and probability) lead to a difference in levels of absolute accuracy. In Study One, older (≥60 years) and younger (18 to 29 years) participants completed tasks in probability and normalized frequency formats. In Study 2, participants completed tasks in probability and natural frequency formats. Findings are that frequencies lead to less over-estimation, particularly in natural frequency tasks, which also reveal an interaction between age and task format whereby older adults seem unaffected by format. There was no association found between format and the avoidance of errors such as base-rate neglect. Findings are discussed in the light of dual and multi-process theories of reasoning, having failed to support the theory that frequency formats elicit System 2 reasoning processes.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of General Psychology on 1st October 2016, available online: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/00221309.2016.1200531
Uncontrolled Keywords: 1701 Psychology, 1702 Cognitive Science
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Divisions: Natural Sciences and Psychology
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
Related URLs:
Date Deposited: 09 Feb 2017 10:35
Last Modified: 07 Sep 2017 13:06
DOI or Identification number: 10.1080/00221309.2016.1200531
URI: http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/5485

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