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Exact Equations for SIR Epidemics on Tree Graphs

Sharkey, KJ, Kiss, IZ, Wilkinson, RR and Simon, PL (2013) Exact Equations for SIR Epidemics on Tree Graphs. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 77 (4). pp. 614-645. ISSN 0092-8240

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We consider Markovian susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics on time-invariant weighted contact networks where the infection and removal processes are Poisson and where network links may be directed or undirected. We prove that a particular pair-based moment closure representation generates the expected infectious time series for networks with no cycles in the underlying graph. Moreover, this “deterministic” representation of the expected behaviour of a complex heterogeneous and finite Markovian system is straightforward to evaluate numerically.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: 01 Mathematical Sciences, 06 Biological Sciences
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Applied Mathematics (merged with Comp Sci 10 Aug 20)
Publisher: Springer Nature
Date Deposited: 03 Jul 2019 10:25
Last Modified: 04 Sep 2021 09:13
DOI or ID number: 10.1007/s11538-013-9923-5
URI: https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/10968
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