Cost-based dynamic risk analysis of offshore wind turbines

Li, R ORCID: 0000-0003-4953-5973, Kong, X ORCID: 0009-0009-8517-7756, Li, H ORCID: 0000-0001-6429-9097, Yang, Z ORCID: 0000-0003-1385-493X, Gkantou, M ORCID: 0000-0003-2494-405X, Ye, HX, Li, H ORCID: 0000-0002-4293-4763 and Wang, J ORCID: 0000-0003-4646-9106 (2026) Cost-based dynamic risk analysis of offshore wind turbines. Applied Ocean Research, 170. ISSN 0141-1187

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Abstract

This paper proposes a cost-based dynamic risk model for offshore wind turbines, leveraging reliability and maintenance data from real offshore wind farms. The model integrates information on wind farm configurations into failure cost modelling and as a basis of that quantifies time-varying failure probabilities and consequences of onsite failures. The model enables dynamic and comparable risk assessment among various offshore wind farms. Results reveal that the auxiliary system represents the highest economic risk, particularly during winter months, and that increasing the distance to the onshore maintenance base leads to a greater rise in system and component risk than simply increasing turbine capacity. The feasibility and advantages of the proposed method are validated through systematic comparative analysis with existing approaches. Overall, this research provides a robust framework for cost-based dynamic risk analysis, supporting economically informed decision-making and season-specific maintenance strategies for offshore wind farms.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Risk analysis; Offshore wind turbine; Failure probability; Failure Cost; 4005 Civil Engineering; 4015 Maritime Engineering; 40 Engineering; 7 Affordable and Clean Energy; 0405 Oceanography; 0905 Civil Engineering; 0914 Resources Engineering and Extractive Metallurgy; Civil Engineering; 3708 Oceanography; 4005 Civil engineering; 4015 Maritime engineering
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Civil Engineering and Built Environment Engineering
Publisher:	Elsevier BV
Date of acceptance:	31 March 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	27 April 2026
Date Deposited:	27 Apr 2026 11:57
Last Modified:	27 Apr 2026 11:57
DOI or ID number:	10.1016/j.apor.2026.105057
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/28467

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