Dynamic risk modelling of maritime accidents based on HFACS-PV and Bayesian Networks

Loughney, S ORCID: 0000-0003-0217-5739, Yildiz, S ORCID: 0000-0002-3340-5819, Uğurlu, Ö ORCID: 0000-0002-3788-1759, Kontovas, C ORCID: 0000-0001-9461-6436 and Wang, J ORCID: 0000-0003-4646-9106 (2026) Dynamic risk modelling of maritime accidents based on HFACS-PV and Bayesian Networks. Ocean Engineering, 355 (1). ISSN 0029-8018

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Abstract

This study develops a probabilistic dynamic risk assessment framework for grounding and collision/contact accidents in narrow waterways by integrating the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System for Passenger Vessels (HFACS-PV) with Bayesian Networks (BN). Marine accident reports from the Dover Strait (2004–2020) were systematically analysed to identify human, organisational, technical, and environmental risk factors, which were subsequently structured into a Bayesian Network to model their interdependencies and dynamic influence on accident occurrence. Conditional probability tables were derived from accident data and supplemented through structured expert elicitation. The resulting model enables real-time inference and predictive risk estimation under evolving operational conditions. Model performance was evaluated using detailed grounding and collision case studies, demonstrating its capability to replicate accident evolution and quantify the contribution of key causal factors. The results indicate that unsafe acts, particularly decision-based and perceptual errors, combined with deficiencies in voyage planning, supervision, and situational awareness, dominate accident causation in the Dover Strait. The proposed framework provides a quantitative decision-support tool for vessel traffic services and maritime operators, supporting proactive risk mitigation and safety optimisation in high-density and constrained navigational environments.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	HFACS-PV; Bayesian networks; Dynamic risk; Safe navigation; Narrow waterways; 4012 Fluid Mechanics and Thermal Engineering; 4005 Civil Engineering; 4015 Maritime Engineering; 40 Engineering; 3 Good Health and Well Being; 0405 Oceanography; 0905 Civil Engineering; 0911 Maritime Engineering; Civil Engineering; 4005 Civil engineering; 4012 Fluid mechanics and thermal engineering; 4015 Maritime engineering
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Engineering
Publisher:	Elsevier
Date of acceptance:	13 March 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	27 April 2026
Date Deposited:	27 Apr 2026 12:24
Last Modified:	27 Apr 2026 12:24
DOI or ID number:	10.1016/j.oceaneng.2026.125099
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/28469

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