Exploring the Macroeconomic Impacts of Low-Carbon Energy Transitions: A Simulation Analysis for Kenya and Ghana

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Willenbockel, D, Osiolo, HH orcid iconORCID: 0000-0001-8697-5471 and Bawakyillenuo, S (2017) Exploring the Macroeconomic Impacts of Low-Carbon Energy Transitions: A Simulation Analysis for Kenya and Ghana. IDS Bulletin, 48 (5-6). pp. 49-77. ISSN 0265-5012

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Abstract

The study applies purpose-built dynamic computable general equilibrium models for Kenya and Ghana with a disaggregated country‑specific representation of the power sector, to simulate the prospective medium-run growth and distributional implications associated with a shift towards a higher share of renewables in the power mix, up to 2025. In both countries, the share of fossil fuel-based thermal electricity generation in the power mix will increase sharply over the next decade and beyond according to current national energy sector development plans. The overarching general message suggested by the simulation results is that in both countries it appears feasible to reduce the carbon content of electricity generation significantly without adverse consequences for economic growth and without noteworthy distributional effects.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: low-carbon growth; scenario analysis; CGE; green growth; renewable energy; climate change mitigation; sustainable energy; 4404 Development Studies; 44 Human Society; 7 Affordable and Clean Energy; 1402 Applied Economics; 1604 Human Geography; 1605 Policy and Administration; Development Studies; 3502 Banking, finance and investment; 4404 Development studies; 4407 Policy and administration
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HF Commerce > HF5001 Business
Divisions: Business and Management (from Sep 19)
Publisher: Institute of Development Studies
Date of acceptance: 1 December 2017
Date of first compliant Open Access: 27 May 2026
Date Deposited: 27 May 2026 11:13
Last Modified: 27 May 2026 11:13
DOI or ID number: 10.19088/1968-2017.163
URI: https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/28659
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