A Bayesian analysis of accidental dwelling fire incidence, injury, and fatality in the Greater Manchester Area

Taylor, M ORCID: 0000-0002-5647-426X, Dean, E, Lyon, R ORCID: 0000-0003-3776-2087, Kwasnica, V, Reilly, D ORCID: 0000-0002-8161-9010 and Francis, H A Bayesian analysis of accidental dwelling fire incidence, injury, and fatality in the Greater Manchester Area. Fire and Materials. ISSN 0308-0501 (Accepted)

Text A Bayesian analysis of accidental dwelling fire incidence, injury, and fatality in the Greater Manchester Area.pdf - Accepted Version Access Restricted Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (535kB)

Abstract

The relationship between accidental dwelling fire incidence and fire injury and fatality was examined using a Bayesian model to estimate the probability of a fire injury or fatality resulting from an accidental dwelling fire incidence under different circumstances of fire incidence (type of accidental dwelling fire, dwelling occupancy type, impairment due to suspected alcohol or drugs, and level of deprivation). Accidental dwelling fire incidence and fire injury and fatality data recorded by Greater Manchester Fire and Rescue Service between 2013/14 and 2023/24 were used to develop the Bayesian model. Overall, impairment due to suspected alcohol or drugs consumption appeared to increase the probability of fire injury across the different types of accidental dwelling fire, and the probability of fire injury and fatality resulting from an accidental dwelling fire was highest for candle and smoking related fires.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	0399 Other Chemical Sciences; 0904 Chemical Engineering; 0999 Other Engineering; Polymers; 3403 Macromolecular and materials chemistry; 4016 Materials engineering
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software H Social Sciences > HV Social pathology. Social and public welfare. Criminology > HV697 Protection, assistance and relief
Divisions:	Computer Science and Mathematics
Publisher:	Wiley
Date of acceptance:	10 June 2026
Date Deposited:	11 Jun 2026 08:29
Last Modified:	11 Jun 2026 08:29
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/28805

View Item