Analysing impact of future emission scenarios on rainfall in rainfed agricultural zones in Northern Iraq using satellite data and CMIP6 models

Abed, TK, Zubaidi, SL, Almamalachy, Y, Al-Mukhtar, M, Abdellatif, M ORCID: 0000-0003-2314-3883, Abdulsahib, SM and Hussein, HH (2026) Analysing impact of future emission scenarios on rainfall in rainfed agricultural zones in Northern Iraq using satellite data and CMIP6 models. Natural Hazards, 122 (12). ISSN 0921-030X

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Abstract

The impacts of climate change on future rainfall in northern Iraq at fine temporal and coarse spatial resolutions, covering all areas where rainfed agriculture is located and where large water-harvesting dams are being built, remain unclear. The study aims to investigate spatial-temporal changes in rainfall and their future projections in northern Iraq for the period 2021–2040 under two emission scenarios (i.e., SSP245 and SSP585). The LARS-WG model is calibrated using daily rainfall data from the baseline period (1985 to 2015) at 20 meteorological stations across five governorates, and is integrated with six global circulation models to project future rainfall. Python code, ArcGIS 10.8.2, and IDW were used to visualise the precipitation data. Results proved that rainfall in the southern and southwestern regions is significantly lower than in the northern and north-eastern regions. However, January to March tended to have greater rainfall than the other months from November to May, with a predominant rainfall range of 60–90 mm. These conditions are expected to persist in the future under both scenarios. Projected precipitation under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios for the period 2021–2040 shows distinct spatial and temporal variability across the study area. However, reductions in low-rainfall areas and increases in higher precipitation classes were evident, with some areas expected to increase by > 120 mm. For instance, in March, the annual rainfall under SSP585 increased from 1.75% during 2006–2015 to 10.44% during 2031–2040. These findings introduce novel, spatially explicit insights that strengthen sustainable development planning by enabling targeted water resource management, climate adaptation strategies, and risk-informed infrastructure design under future climate scenarios.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	3707 Hydrology; 3701 Atmospheric Sciences; 37 Earth Sciences; 13 Climate Action; 0401 Atmospheric Sciences; 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience; 1701 Psychology; Strategic, Defence & Security Studies; 3709 Physical geography and environmental geoscience
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences T Technology > T Technology (General) T Technology > T Technology (General) > T58.5 Information Technology
Divisions:	Civil Engineering and Built Environment
Publisher:	Springer
Date of acceptance:	27 May 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	1 July 2026
Date Deposited:	01 Jul 2026 15:00
Last Modified:	01 Jul 2026 15:00
DOI or ID number:	10.1007/s11069-026-08271-x
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/28928

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