A Novel Framework for Quantitative Evaluation of Resilience Performance of Sea Lanes of Communication

Fan, H ORCID: 0000-0002-1019-2099, Jia, H, Gong, X, Chang, Z and Lyu, J (2026) A Novel Framework for Quantitative Evaluation of Resilience Performance of Sea Lanes of Communication. Risk Analysis, 46 (6). ISSN 0272-4332

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Abstract

Sea lanes of communication (SLOC) are perceived as intricate systems comprising shipping routes, key straits, and canals, which are increasingly vulnerable to external disruptions. This study proposes a holistic framework for resilience assessment on the system by introducing an advanced framework incorporating fuzzy logic, a critic weight calculation approach, and the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm to assess resilience. Second, a hierarchical influential index is created, assessing the system's capacity to absorb, adjust, and recover from disruptions while incorporating connectivity among key straits and canals to illustrate the risk performance and spatial relationships of the straits and canals within Sea Lanes of Communication. Third, a fuzzy ER algorithm integrates information from diverse sources, taking into account the significance and nonlinear relationships among the influential factors. Finally, we present techniques to assess the resilience performance and validate our models. This proposed framework is implemented through an empirical study of five primary Sea Lanes of Communications that connect the Far East and the rest of the world. This framework provides valuable insights into resilience performance in an environment with high uncertainties and offers guidance for relevant stakeholders.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Maritime Safety; Resilience; Evidential Reasoning; Risk Analysis; Sea Lanes of Communication; Evidential Reasoning; Maritime Safety; Resilience; Risk Analysis; Sea Lanes of Communication; 46 Information and Computing Sciences; 4602 Artificial Intelligence; Strategic, Defence & Security Studies
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) V Naval Science > V Naval Science (General)
Divisions:	Engineering
Publisher:	Wiley
Date of acceptance:	12 May 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	13 July 2026
Date Deposited:	13 Jul 2026 12:23
Last Modified:	13 Jul 2026 12:23
DOI or ID number:	10.1111/risa.70274
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/28997

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