From static inventories to predictive assessment: a plant-level framework for cement embodied carbon

Dilba, RK, Sadique, M ORCID: 0000-0001-7967-2659, Lee, D ORCID: 0000-0001-6875-1650, Amoako-Attah, J ORCID: 0000-0002-2353-4131 and Al-Mufti, R (2026) From static inventories to predictive assessment: a plant-level framework for cement embodied carbon. Construction Innovation. pp. 1-24. ISSN 1471-4175

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Abstract

Purpose
Conventional life cycle assessments (LCAs) of cement production typically provide static embodied carbon inventories that offer limited insight into how emissions respond to changes in key process parameters. This limitation is particularly acute in data-scarce regions, where reliance on generic databases can misrepresent both emission intensities and mitigation priorities. This study aims to develop and validate a plant-level, predictive framework for embodied carbon assessment in cement production, and to identify the dominant process drivers of embodied carbon at the plant level.

Design/methodology/approach
A hybrid framework integrating process-based LCA with targeted statistical modelling is developed under cradle-to-gate system boundaries (A1–A3). Primary plant-level data were obtained through a structured questionnaire-based survey of a cement plant in Qatar, covering five operational years (2020–2024). The approach distinguishes between chemistry-driven calcination emissions, modelled using multiple linear regression performed in IBM SPSS Statistics (v.25), and deterministic activity-based components, represented through governing equations. A one-at-a-time (±10%) sensitivity analysis was used to rank the influence of key parameters. The framework is applied to, and validated against, primary operational data from a cement plant in Qatar.

Findings
The framework yields an embodied carbon intensity of 652 kg CO2e per tonne of Ordinary Portland cement (OPC) for the case-study plant (cradle-to-gate, A1–A3), with calcination dominating (81%), followed by fuel combustion (12%) and electricity (5%). Sensitivity analysis confirms the clinker-to-cement ratio and CaO content as the strongest decarbonisation levers: a 10% clinker-ratio reduction yields approximately 62 kg CO2e per tonne. Statistical models (R² > 0.9) validate the predictive equations and confirm the framework’s ability to generate decision-ready emission curves for clinker substitution, fuel switching and grid decarbonisation scenarios. The Qatar benchmark sits in the lower-mid range of international OPC values, attributable to natural-gas firing and moderate electricity intensity. To the authors’ knowledge this is the first published plant-level OPC embodied carbon value for Qatar and the wider Gulf Cooperation Council region.

Originality/value
The study advances cement embodied carbon assessment by transforming static LCA inventories into predictive, scenario-ready relationships using a plant-level hybrid framework. The methodology is transferable to other data-scarce cement production contexts and provides a decision-oriented basis for embodied carbon benchmarking and decarbonisation policy development.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	1202 Building; 1503 Business and Management; 1504 Commercial Services; 3302 Building; 3507 Strategy, management and organisational behaviour; 4005 Civil engineering
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Civil Engineering and Built Environment
Publisher:	Emerald
Date of acceptance:	23 June 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	17 July 2026
Date Deposited:	16 Jul 2026 08:27
Last Modified:	17 Jul 2026 00:50
DOI or ID number:	10.1108/ci-01-2026-0029
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/29017

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