Application of Bayesian model for third party damage assessment of cross-country oil pipeline under uncertainty

Hassan, S, Wang, J ORCID: 0000-0003-4646-9106, Bashir, M ORCID: 0000-0002-4331-4275 and Kontovas, C ORCID: 0000-0001-9461-6436 (2019) Application of Bayesian model for third party damage assessment of cross-country oil pipeline under uncertainty. In: Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference Esrel 2019 . pp. 1486-1493. (29th European Safety and Reliability Conference, 22nd Sep- 26th Sep 2019, Hannover, Germany).

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Abstract

As a result of incessant pipeline damages and resultant consequences of fires, explosion and environmental pollution due to third-party events to cross-country pipelines in Nigeria, stakeholders are looking at solutions in dealing with third-party threats to reduce the human and the financial losses. To address this challenge, a Bayesian Network (BN) threat model has been developed. The model addresses multiple interactions between several parameters for risk reduction and mitigation, such as the technological (e.g., leak detection, aerial survey), the human (e.g., intelligence, community partnership) and the operational (e.g., staffing, training, patrol) measures. Moreover, the complexity of the interaction increases when considering that some of the measures are further compromised by internal failings and collusions within some stakeholder organizations. The Bayesian network model is created to better describe the third-party events by identifying and quantifying the relationship between the influential factors aimed at reducing the threat. The main focus of this paper is the construction of a model that shows the threat reduction of those multiple parameters' interactions resulting from third-party interference. The model will enable the pipeline stakeholders and operators to determine those parameters or interventions that have the most impact on threat reduction and hence the overall reduction in pipeline loss of containment. In addition, this Bayesian network model allows for the causal relationship to be modelled through an intuitive graphical representation that can be updated when new field data becomes available. The model has the potential to analyze a system-wide pipeline failure risks under uncertainty and can also focus on a sub-threat arising from the third-party activities, for example, political sabotages, in order to gain a wider understanding and to identify an effective combination of risk reduction and intervention factors.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information:	Originally published as Part of the conference proceedings for ESREL 2019 https://esrel2019.org/
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Civil Engineering and Built Environment
Date of acceptance:	30 April 2019
Date of first compliant Open Access:	10 August 2026
Date Deposited:	10 Aug 2026 13:03
Last Modified:	10 Aug 2026 13:07
DOI or ID number:	10.3850/978-981-11-2724-30802-cd
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/29129

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