Asynchronous local differences in Lyme disease environmental hazard driven by variation in tick abundance and Borrelia burgdorferi infection prevalence

Hall, JL, Delnicka, A, Bown, KJ ORCID: 0000-0002-9312-7224 and Birtles, RJ Asynchronous local differences in Lyme disease environmental hazard driven by variation in tick abundance and Borrelia burgdorferi infection prevalence. Parasites & Vectors. ISSN 1756-3305 (Accepted)

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Abstract

Background
The tick-borne disease Lyme borreliosis (LB) is a clear and increasing public health threat across the temperate regions of the northern hemisphere, including the United Kingdom. The epidemiology of LB is shaped by the environmental hazard posed by its causative agent Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, which is frequently quantified in terms of the density of infected nymphal ticks (DIN).

Methods
We report quantification of the dynamics of DIN at three sites in close proximity to one another in Cumbria, a region of the UK where LB is frequently reported, through monthly surveys of questing Ixodes ricinus nymphs over a 33-month period.

Results
Despite the proximity of study sites, we observed significant spatial variation in DIN between them. We also observed significant temporal variation in DIN at all three sites, but this variation was asynchronous. Changes in both tick abundance and B. burgdorferi infection prevalence underlay this variation.

Conclusions
These observations suggest very local key ecological determinants of DIN and that meaningful estimation/prediction of LB risk on a national or regional scale is extremely challenging.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Borrelia burgdorferi; Ixodes ricinus; Lyme borreliosis; Tick-borne disease; 3107 Microbiology; 3207 Medical Microbiology; 32 Biomedical and Clinical Sciences; 31 Biological Sciences; Biodefense; Infectious Diseases; Emerging Infectious Diseases; Tickborne Diseases; Vector-Borne Diseases; Lyme Disease; 1108 Medical Microbiology; 1117 Public Health and Health Services; Mycology & Parasitology; Tropical Medicine; 3107 Microbiology; 3207 Medical microbiology
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Divisions:	Biological and Environmental Sciences (from Sep 19)
Publisher:	Springer
Date of acceptance:	3 June 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	26 August 2026
Date Deposited:	26 Aug 2026 09:33
Last Modified:	26 Aug 2026 09:33
DOI or ID number:	10.1186/s13071-026-07509-8
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/29198

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