A latent risk factor analysis guiding policy interventions for inland maritime safety

Yin, J, Khan, RU ORCID: 0000-0002-6887-3487, Asad, M, Wang, X and Yang, Z ORCID: 0000-0003-1385-493X (2026) A latent risk factor analysis guiding policy interventions for inland maritime safety. Transport Policy, 180. ISSN 0967-070X

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Abstract

Inland waterway safety is a pressing policy priority in China's transport sector, where effective regulation and targeted interventions are vital to managing accident risks in the world's busiest inland shipping network. While policymakers have increasingly focused on this issue, the causal mechanisms shaping accident severity remain insufficiently understood. This study applies Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to quantify the influence of four latent constructs, Ship Characteristics, Environmental Conditions, Operational Risk, and Crew & Equipment, on inland maritime accident outcomes. Constructs were validated through principal component analysis, and the model achieved excellent fit (χ2<//df = 1.363; RMSEA = 0.022; CFI = 0.94). Results show that Operational Risk (β = 0.84) and Crew & Equipment (β = 0.70) are the strongest predictors of severity. These insights highlight that the policy needs to strengthen operational oversight, crew training, and equipment standards. The proposed framework provides a transferable, evidence-based tool for enhancing safety governance in inland waterway transport both within China and globally.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Inland waterway accidents; Structural equation modeling (SEM); Maritime safety; Operational risk; Environmental conditions; Latent variable analysis; 3505 Human Resources and Industrial Relations; 35 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services; 3 Good Health and Well Being; 1205 Urban and Regional Planning; 1507 Transportation and Freight Services; Logistics & Transportation; 3304 Urban and regional planning; 3509 Transportation, logistics and supply chains
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) V Naval Science > VM Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering
Divisions:	Engineering and Built Environment
Publisher:	Elsevier BV
Date of acceptance:	2 February 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	1 September 2026
Date Deposited:	01 Sep 2026 08:09
Last Modified:	01 Sep 2026 08:09
DOI or ID number:	10.1016/j.tranpol.2026.104057
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/29243

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