Quantitative assessment of language and cultural diversity as human reliability factors in maritime safety

Khan, RU ORCID: 0000-0002-6887-3487, Yin, J, Afzaal, M and Yang, Z ORCID: 0000-0003-1385-493X (2026) Quantitative assessment of language and cultural diversity as human reliability factors in maritime safety. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 273. ISSN 0951-8320

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Abstract

Reliable shipboard operations depend on effective communication and situational awareness among multinational crews. Language barriers and cultural diversity, if unmanaged, can degrade operational reliability and compromise safety-critical decision-making. Yet quantitative evidence on how language and cultural diversity shape accident risk remains limited. This study applies a Bayesian Network (BN) framework to assess the reliability and safety implications of language and cultural diversity using 550 maritime accident investigations. Natural Language Processing (NLP) extracted indicators, including crew nationality composition, language diversity (Shannon Index), cultural diversity (Hofstede Index), and adherence to Standard Maritime Communication Phrases (SMCP), which were integrated into the BN model. Parameters were estimated using the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, allowing the model to quantify pathways to communication errors, conflict, and accident severity. Results show that high language diversity and low proficiency substantially increase communication failures: miscommunication and misinterpretation together account for 68% of observed errors (43% and 25%), with high language diversity the most frequent state (∼48%). Verbal exchanges remain the most failure-prone mode (47%), and container ships account for the largest share of communication-related accidents (42%), with collision and grounding comprising 41% and 24% of incidents. At the consequence level, major repairs are the modal outcome (∼40%), but scenario analysis shows that under highly adverse diversity and proficiency configurations, the combined probability of major repair and total loss can exceed 60%. Strength-of-influence results identify vessel size, nationality, and language diversity as structural drivers (0.54), while language training (0.26), SMCP use (0.24), and cultural familiarization (0.27) are the most effective levers to improve proficiency and reduce conflicts. Scenario analysis further demonstrates that aligning these levers can cut total loss probability on large container ships from about 23% under stressed human-factor conditions to 3% under best-practice communication settings, while shifting incident severity toward minor outcomes and containing casualties. These results provide a quantitative basis for setting language-training thresholds, enforcing SMCP, and designing crew-mix and cultural familiarization policies in maritime safety management.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Ship crew; Language diversity; Cultural diversity; Human reliability; Miscommunication; Risk assessment; Maritime safety; 35 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services; 01 Mathematical Sciences; 09 Engineering; 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services; Strategic, Defence & Security Studies; 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services; 40 Engineering; 49 Mathematical sciences
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) V Naval Science > VM Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering
Divisions:	Engineering and Built Environment
Publisher:	Elsevier
Date of acceptance:	3 February 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	1 September 2026
Date Deposited:	01 Sep 2026 09:26
Last Modified:	01 Sep 2026 09:26
DOI or ID number:	10.1016/j.ress.2026.112358
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/29248

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