Drivers of Cross-Boundary Land Use and Cover Change in a Megacity Region: Evidence from the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Tang, X, Xu, J, Wang, R ORCID: 0000-0002-0405-6963, Li, JV, Jiang, L and Li, CZ (2026) Drivers of Cross-Boundary Land Use and Cover Change in a Megacity Region: Evidence from the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area. Sustainability Switzerland, 18 (1). ISSN 2071-1050

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Abstract

Megacity regions mark a transformative phase of urbanisation, in which interconnected cities undergo land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) that extends beyond administrative boundaries. However, the drivers of cross-boundary LUCC remain insufficiently examined, particularly before the top-down regional integration. The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) provides a clear empirical case, having experienced cross-boundary LUCC prior to its formal designation as a megacity region in 2018. This study builds a Landsat-derived LUCC and driver dataset for the GBA. Global and local spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I and LISA) are used to characterise spatial structure and clustering, and geographically weighted regression identifies the socio-economic and environmental determinants of built-up expansion over 1980–2018, spanning the pre-reform decade and the post-1990 land-transfer era. Findings reveal that: (1) LUCC in the GBA already exhibited a cross-border, spatially networked expansion pattern before formal regional integration policies at the national level, with built-up area growth extending beyond core cities into decentralised urban nodes. Two prominent cross-border cores and one cross-administrative core emerged, suggesting that regional integration was co-led by market forces and local governments before an institutional framework was established. (2) Although the GBA showed a clear trend towards integrated development, urban expansion was highly uneven. Such spatial disparities were mainly driven by varying socioeconomic and natural factors, including gross domestic product, population growth, real estate investment, water resource proximity, and infrastructure development. These findings enhance understanding of megacity-region dynamics and offer insights from the GBA for cross-border urbanisation and sustainable spatial governance.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	megacity region; land use; land cover; land use and cover change; remote sensing; spatial structure formation; Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area; informal regionalism; 4406 Human Geography; 44 Human Society; Social Determinants of Health; Generic health relevance; 15 Life on Land; 12 Built Environment and Design
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Engineering and Built Environment
Publisher:	MDPI
Date of acceptance:	25 December 2025
Date of first compliant Open Access:	1 September 2026
Date Deposited:	01 Sep 2026 14:31
Last Modified:	01 Sep 2026 14:31
DOI or ID number:	10.3390/su18010470
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/29266

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