Potential Spatiotemporal Variability for Meteorological Drought in Anbar Governorate, Iraq Using CMIP6 Models

Fadhil, ZA, Zubaidi, SL, Almamalachy, Y, Al-Mukhtar, M, Hussein, HH, Mohammed, R, Saeed, FH, Abdellatif, M ORCID: 0000-0003-2314-3883 and Al-Ansari, N (2026) Potential Spatiotemporal Variability for Meteorological Drought in Anbar Governorate, Iraq Using CMIP6 Models. Warith Scientific Journal of Engineering and Technology, 2 (1). pp. 71-88. ISSN 3079-0697

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Abstract

This study proposes a framework for examining the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in Anbar Governorate, Iraq, for both historical and future periods, using LARS-WG, five CMIP6 GCMs (SSP245 and SSP585), a Drought Index Calculator, and GIS tools. The Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI-12) was used to evaluate the spatial-temporal patterns of drought frequency and severity at seven meteorological stations between 1985 and 2015 and between 2021 and 2040. The main conclusions from the study included that LARS-WG performs successfully for climatic factor projection. The general average level of drought expected will be ``near-normal dry'', while the maximum drought level expected will be ``severely dry''. The near-normal drought category had the highest drought frequency in both the past and future scenarios. The highest values of drought intensity and frequency (severely) were recorded at Rutba Station, with a frequency of 4, and a recurrence rate of 13.33% for the baseline period. For both the first and second future scenarios, Haditha and Anah Stations will report the highest percentage of the moderate drought category (with drought frequency of 4 and recurrence rate of 21.05% for both stations).

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	37 Earth Sciences; 3701 Atmospheric Sciences
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Engineering and Built Environment
Publisher:	University of Warith Al-Anbiyaa - DIGITAL COMMONS JOURNALS
Date of acceptance:	8 May 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	2 September 2026
Date Deposited:	02 Sep 2026 13:01
Last Modified:	02 Sep 2026 13:01
DOI or ID number:	10.65892/3079-0697.1006
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/29285

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