The fate of the failed supernova candidate M31-2014-DS

Beasor, ER ORCID: 0000-0003-4666-4606, Smith, N, Pearson, J, Subrayan, B, Berger, E, Sand, DJ and Strader, J (2026) The fate of the failed supernova candidate M31-2014-DS. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 546 (3). ISSN 0035-8711

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Abstract

The fate of massive stars above 20‌ M⊙ remains uncertain. Debate persists about whether they die as supernovae (SNe), or if they collapse directly into black holes (BHs) with little or no optical outburst-so-called failed supernovae. The source M31-2014-DS1 experienced an optical outburst in 2014 and has remained faint at visual wavelengths since then. Due to its persistent faintness, it has been proposed as a failed SN candidate. We present new observations of this candidate obtained using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the Submillimeter Array, and Chandra. The JWST observations demonstrate that a luminous mid-infrared source persists at the same location a decade after the star faded at visual wavelengths. We model its current spectral energy distribution as a dust-enshrouded star. No X-ray emission is detected, disfavouring the hypothesis that the late-time luminosity is powered by accretion on to a BH. We find that the remaining source is highly obscured by an asymmetric distribution of circumstellar dust, making it difficult to quantify its physical properties using spherically symmetric radiative transfer codes. The dust geometry requires that the inferred bolometric luminosity is only a lower limit, as a significant fraction of the central source’s radiation may escape without being reprocessed by dust. We discuss the implications of these findings in the context of failed SN models and consider the potential overlap with signatures expected from a stellar merger, which also seems to provide a plausible explanation of this source.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	stars: black holes; circumstellar matter; stars: massive; stars: mass-loss; 5109 Space Sciences; 5101 Astronomical Sciences; 51 Physical Sciences; 0201 Astronomical and Space Sciences; Astronomy & Astrophysics; 5101 Astronomical sciences; 5107 Particle and high energy physics; 5109 Space sciences
Subjects:	Q Science > QB Astronomy Q Science > QC Physics
Divisions:	Astrophysics Research Institute
Publisher:	Oxford University Press
Date of acceptance:	6 January 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	10 September 2026
Date Deposited:	10 Sep 2026 14:41
Last Modified:	10 Sep 2026 14:41
DOI or ID number:	10.1093/mnras/stag052
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/29384

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