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Risk Assessment and Management of Petroleum Transportation Systems Operations

Alghanmi, A (2018) Risk Assessment and Management of Petroleum Transportation Systems Operations. Doctoral thesis, Liverpool John Moores University.

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Petroleum Transportation Systems (PTSs) have a significant impact on the flow of crude oil within a Petroleum Supply Chain (PSC), due to the great demand on this natural product. Such systems are used for safe movement of crude and/or refined products from starting points (i.e. production sites or storage tanks), to their final destinations, via land or sea transportation. PTSs are vulnerable to several risks because they often operate in a dynamic environment. Due to this environment, many potential risks and uncertainties are involved. Not only having a direct effect on the product flow within PSC, PTSs accidents could also have severe consequences for the humans, businesses, and the environment. Therefore, safe operations of the key systems such as port, ship and pipeline, are vital for the success of PTSs. This research introduces an advanced approach to ensure safety of PTSs. This research proposes multiple network analysis, risk assessment, uncertainties treatment and decision making techniques for dealing with potential hazards and operational issues that are happening within the marine ports, ships, or pipeline transportation segments within one complete system. The main phases of the developed framework are formulated in six steps. In the first phase of the research, the hazards in PTSs operations that can lead to a crude oil spill are identified through conducting an extensive review of literature and experts’ knowledge. In the second phase, a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Reasoning (FRBBR) and Hugin software are applied in the new context of PTSs to assess and prioritise the local PTSs failures as one complete system. The third phase uses Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in order to determine the weight of PTSs local factors. In the fourth phase, network analysis approach is used to measure the importance of petroleum ports, ships and pipelines systems globally within Petroleum Transportation Networks (PTNs). This approach can help decision makers to measure and detect the critical nodes (ports and transportation routes) within PTNs. The fifth phase uses an Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach and Intelligence Decision System (IDS) software, to assess hazards influencing on PTSs as one complete system. This research developed an advance risk-based framework applied ER approach due to its ability to combine the local/internal and global/external risk analysis results of the PTSs. To complete the cycle of this study, the best mitigating strategies are introduced and evaluated by incorporating VIseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) and AHP to rank the risk control options. The novelty of this framework provides decision makers with realistic and flexible results to ensure efficient and safe operations for PTSs.

Item Type: Thesis (Doctoral)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Maritime risk; Maritime transport; Petroleum transportation; Bayesian belief network; Fuzzy set theory; Centrality measures; Evidential reasoning; Analytic hierarchy process; VIKOR method
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
Divisions: Maritime & Mechanical Engineering (merged with Engineering 10 Aug 20)
Date Deposited: 07 Sep 2018 08:31
Last Modified: 23 Nov 2022 10:05
DOI or ID number: 10.24377/researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk.00009160
Supervisors: Yang, Z and Blanco Davis, E
URI: https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/9160
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