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A Three-Part Bayesian Network for Modeling Dwelling Fires and Their Impact upon People and Property.

Matellini, DB, Wall, AD, Jenkinson, ID, Wang, J and Pritchard, R (2018) A Three-Part Bayesian Network for Modeling Dwelling Fires and Their Impact upon People and Property. Risk Analysis. ISSN 0272-4332

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Abstract

In the United Kingdom, dwelling fires are responsible for the majority of all fire-related fatalities. The development of these incidents involves the interaction of a multitude of variables that combine in many different ways. Consequently, assessment of dwelling fire risk can be complex, which often results in ambiguity during fire safety planning and decision making. In this article, a three-part Bayesian network model is proposed to study dwelling fires from ignition through to extinguishment in order to improve confidence in dwelling fire safety assessment. The model incorporates both hard and soft data, delivering posterior probabilities for selected outcomes. Case studies demonstrate how the model functions and provide evidence of its use for planning and accident investigation.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is the accepted version of the following article: Matellini, D. B., Wall, A. D., Jenkinson, I. D., Wang, J. and Pritchard, R. (2018), A Three‐Part Bayesian Network for Modeling Dwelling Fires and Their Impact upon People and Property. Risk Analysis, which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.13113
Uncontrolled Keywords: MD Multidisciplinary
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
Divisions: Maritime and Mechanical Engineering
Publisher: Wiley
Related URLs:
Date Deposited: 12 Jun 2018 08:31
Last Modified: 19 Sep 2018 10:11
DOI or Identification number: 10.1111/risa.13113
URI: http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/8828

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