Wilkinson, RR, Ball, FG and Sharkey, KJ (2016) The deterministic Kermack‒McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic. Journal of Applied Probability, 53 (4). pp. 1031-1040. ISSN 0021-9002

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Abstract

We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic susceptible→infected→recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time t>0, a strict lower bound on the expected number of susceptibles and a strict upper bound on the expected number of recoveries in the general stochastic SIR epidemic. The proof is based on the recent message passing representation of SIR epidemics applied to a complete graph.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	0102 Applied Mathematics, 0104 Statistics
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics R Medicine > R Medicine (General) R Medicine > RB Pathology
Divisions:	Applied Mathematics (merged with Comp Sci 10 Aug 20)
Publisher:	Cambridge University Press (CUP)
Date Deposited:	03 Jul 2019 09:32
Last Modified:	04 Sep 2021 09:13
DOI or ID number:	10.1017/jpr.2016.62
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/10963

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