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Message passing and moment closure for susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics on finite networks

Wilkinson, RR and Sharkey, KJ (2014) Message passing and moment closure for susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics on finite networks. Physical Review E, 89 (2). ISSN 1539-3755

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Open Access URL: https://journals.aps.org/pre/abstract/10.1103/Phys... (Published version)

Abstract

The message passing approach of Karrer and Newman [Phys. Rev. E 82, 016101 (2010)] is an exact and practicable representation of susceptible-infected-recovered dynamics on finite trees. Here we show that, assuming Poisson contact processes, a pair-based moment-closure representation [Sharkey, J. Math. Biol. 57, 311 (2008)] can be derived from their equations. We extend the applicability of both representations and discuss their relative merits. On arbitrary time-independent networks, as was shown for the message passing formalism, the pair-based moment-closure equations also provide a rigorous lower bound on the expected number of susceptibles at all times.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: 01 Mathematical Sciences, 02 Physical Sciences, 09 Engineering
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Divisions: Applied Mathematics
Publisher: American Physical Society (APS)
Date Deposited: 03 Jul 2019 10:00
Last Modified: 03 Jul 2019 10:00
DOI or Identification number: 10.1103/physreve.89.022808
URI: http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/10965

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