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Impact analysis of climate change on rail systems for adaptation planning: A UK case

Wang, T, Qu, Z, Yang, Z, Nichol, T, Dimitriu, D, Clarke, G, Bowde, D and Lee, P Impact analysis of climate change on rail systems for adaptation planning: A UK case. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. ISSN 1361-9209 (Accepted)

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Abstract

Climate change poses critical challenges for rail infrastructure and operations. However, the systematic analysis of climate risks and the associated costs of tackling them, particularly from a quantitative perspective, is still at an embryonic phase due to the kaleidoscopic nature of climate change impacts and lack of precise climatic data. To cope with such challenges, an advanced Fuzzy Bayesian Reasoning (FBR) model is applied in this paper to understand climate threats of the railway system. This model ranks climate risks under high uncertainty in data and comprehensively evaluates these risks by taking account of infrastructure resilience and specific aspects of severity of consequence. Through conducting a nationwide survey on the British railway system, it dissects the status quo of primary climate risks. The survey implies that the top potential climate threats are heavy precipitation and floods. The primary risks caused by the climate threats are bridges collapsing and bridge foundation damage due to flooding and landslips. The findings can aid transport planners to prioritise climate risks and develop rational adaptation measures and strategies.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: 1205 Urban and Regional Planning, 1507 Transportation and Freight Services, 0502 Environmental Science and Management
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
Divisions: Justice Studies (new Sep 19)
Publisher: Elsevier
Date Deposited: 17 Apr 2020 11:21
Last Modified: 17 Apr 2020 11:30
URI: http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/12756

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