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Assessing the Outbreak Risk of Epidemics Using Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning.

Shi, X, Li, J, Huang, A, Song, S and Yang, Z (2021) Assessing the Outbreak Risk of Epidemics Using Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning. Risk Analysis. ISSN 0272-4332

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Abstract

Epidemic diseases (EDs) present a significant but challenging risk endangering public health, evidenced by the outbreak of COVID-19. Compared to other risks affecting public health such as flooding, EDs attract little attention in terms of risk assessment in the current literature. It does not well respond to the high practical demand for advanced techniques capable of tackling ED risks. To bridge this gap, an adapted fuzzy evidence reasoning method is proposed to realize the quantitative analysis of ED outbreak risk assessment (EDRA) with high uncertainty in risk data. The novelty of this article lies in (1) taking the lead to establish the outbreak risk evaluation system of epidemics covering the whole epidemic developing process, (2) combining quantitative and qualitative analysis in the fields of epidemic risk evaluation, (3) collecting substantial first-hand data by reviewing transaction data and interviewing the frontier experts and policymakers from Chinese Centers for Disease Control and Chinese National Medical Products Administration. This work provides useful insights for the regulatory bodies to (1) understand the risk levels of different EDs in a quantitative manner and (2) the sensitivity of different EDs to the identified risk factors for their effective control. For instance, in the case study, we use real data to disclose that influenza has the highest breakout risk level in Beijing. The proposed method also provides a potential tool for evaluating the outbreak risk of COVID-19.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Shi, X., Li, J., Huang, A., Song, S. and Yang, Z. (2021), Assessing the Outbreak Risk of Epidemics Using Fuzzy Evidential Reasoning. Risk Analysis., which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13730 This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Epidemic diseases; evidential reasoning; risk assessment
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
T Technology > T Technology (General)
Divisions: Engineering
Publisher: Wiley
Related URLs:
Date Deposited: 28 Apr 2021 09:28
Last Modified: 28 Apr 2021 09:30
DOI or Identification number: 10.1111/risa.13730
URI: https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/14877

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