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A Model for Delay Analysis Impact at Planning Phase of Oil & Gas Pipeline Projects: A case of Iraq

Shah, RK, Kraidi, L, Matipa, WM and Borthwick, F (2022) A Model for Delay Analysis Impact at Planning Phase of Oil & Gas Pipeline Projects: A case of Iraq. In: EPiC Series in Built Environment: ASC 2022, 58th Annual Associated Schools of Construction International Conference: , 3. pp. 299-307. (ASC2022: 58th Annual Associated Schools of Construction International Conference, 20th-23rd April 2022, Atlanta, GA, United States).

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Project delay and cost overrun are major issues caused by the associated Risk Factors (RFs) in any projects including Oil and Gas Pipeline Projects (OGPPs). This problem is exacerbated by the subjective nature of the identification and quantification of delay factors t at the planning stage. To overcome above issues, this research designs a Delay Analysis Model (DAM) at planning stage of the project by introducing fuzzy logic in delay analysis; hence, systematize and objectify the quantification of the process. The paper presents a step-by-step process of identifying the RFs and quantifying the probability of project delivery. The main inputs of the model are the RFs, level of impact, and the estimated maximum & minimum duration of each task of the project. The model is integrated within @Risk and Monte Carlo Simulation to quantify the delay impact. The output of the study is a useful delay analysis tool that help to determine the potential delay and confidence level of project deliver time at the planning stage to take proactive measures. The model was evaluated using a case study of an OGPP. The findings suggested that a potential delay at pre-construction stage was found around 42 days might occur due to the associated risk factors in the project.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
T Technology > TP Chemical technology
Divisions: Civil Engineering & Built Environment
Publisher: Easy Chair
Date Deposited: 03 Feb 2022 11:19
Last Modified: 14 Jun 2022 10:36
DOI or ID number: 10.29007/m9hk
URI: https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/16227
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