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Wilby, RL, Noone, S, Murphy, C, Matthews, TR, Harrigan, S and Broderick, C (2015) An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network. International Journal of Climatology. ISSN 1097-0088
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Wilby et al - Persistent meteorological droughts in Ireland.pdf - Accepted Version Download (871kB) | Preview |
Abstract
This paper investigates the spatial and temporal properties of persistent meteorological droughts using the homogeneous Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network. Relative to a 1961-1990 baseline period it is shown that the longest observed run of below average precipitation since the 1850s lasted up to 5 years (10 half-year seasons) at sites in southeast and east Ireland, or 3 years across the network as a whole. Dry- and wet-spell length distributions were represented by a first-order Markov model which yields realistic runs of below average rainfall for individual sites and IIP series. This model shows that there is relatively high likelihood (p=0.125) of a 5 year dry-spell at Dublin, and that near unbroken dry runs of 10 years or more are conceivable. We suggest that the IIP network and attendant rainfall deficit modelling provide credible data for stress testing water supply and drought plans under extreme conditions.
| Item Type: | Article |
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| Additional Information: | This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Wilby, R. L., Noone, S., Murphy, C., Matthews, T., Harrigan, S. and Broderick, C. (2015), An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network. Int. J. Climatol., which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.4523. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving |
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | 0401 Atmospheric Sciences, 0905 Civil Engineering, 0907 Environmental Engineering |
| Subjects: | G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences Q Science > QC Physics |
| Divisions: | Natural Sciences & Psychology (closed 31 Aug 19) |
| Publisher: | Wiley |
| Date Deposited: | 27 Apr 2016 10:35 |
| Last Modified: | 04 Sep 2021 13:59 |
| URI: | https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/1962 |
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