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Predicting Future Salinity Variability in the Ca Mau Peninsula due to Climate Change

Anh, DT, Gagnon, AS, Tanim, AH, Wright, D, Duc, TM and Thanh, PN Predicting Future Salinity Variability in the Ca Mau Peninsula due to Climate Change. In: Energy, Infrastructure and Environmental Research 2024 Proceedings . (International Conference on Energy, Infrastructure and Environmental Research, 17th January - 18th January 2024, Vung Tau, Vietnam). (Accepted)

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Abstract

The Ca Mau Peninsula (CMP) in Vietnam's Lower Mekong Delta faces pressing challenges, including sea-level rise, land subsidence, flooding, and saltwater intrusion. Recent years have witnessed an earlier and more severe dry season, leading to heightened saltwater intrusion. As many CMP provinces rely on the Mekong River for their watersupply, they are highly susceptible to prolonged drought and salinization. This study employs the MIKE 11 hydraulic model to project saltwater intrusion scenarios in the CMP up to 2050, based on Vietnam's 2016 Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) sea-level rise projections, considering water regulation from the Cai Lon-Cai Be sluice system. The model was calibrated and validated successfully, with salinity concentrations also validated at four stations. The projections indicate that saltwater intrusion during the dry season could start 1 to 1.5 months earlier by 2050, with salinity levels exceeding 30g/l in February. This salinity increase reduced upstream river flow, and sea-level rise will impact the region's agriculture and domestic water supply.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Divisions: Biological & Environmental Sciences (from Sep 19)
Publisher: Natural Sciences and Technology Publishing house of Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology
SWORD Depositor: A Symplectic
Date Deposited: 16 Oct 2023 15:21
Last Modified: 04 Mar 2024 13:39
URI: https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/21722
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