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A novel flexible model for piracy and robbery assessment of merchant ship operations

Pristrom, S, Yang, Z, Wang, J and Yan, X (2016) A novel flexible model for piracy and robbery assessment of merchant ship operations. RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY, 155. pp. 196-211. ISSN 0951-8320

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Maritime piracy and robbery can not only cause logistics chain disruption leading to economic consequences but also result in loss of lives, and short- and long-term health problems of seafarers and passengers. There is a justified need for further investigation in this area of paramount importance. This study analyses maritime piracy and robbery related incidents in terms of the major influencing factors such as ship characteristics and geographical locations. An analytical model incorporating Bayesian reasoning is proposed to estimate the likelihood of a ship being hijacked in the Western Indian or Eastern African region. The proposed model takes into account the characteristics of the ship, environment conditions and the maritime security measures in place in an integrated manner. Available data collected from the Global Integrated Shipping Information System (GISIS) together with expert judgement is used to develop and demonstrate the proposed model. This model can be used by maritime stakeholders to make cost-effective anti-piracy decisions in their operations under uncertainties. Discussions are given on industrial response to maritime piracy in order to minimize the risk to ships exposed to attacks from pirates. Further recommendations on how maritime security and piracy may be best addressed in terms of maritime security measures are outlined.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: 09 Engineering, 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism And Services, 01 Mathematical Sciences
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General) > G149 Travel. Voyages and travels (General) > G154.9 Travel and state. Tourism
Divisions: Maritime & Mechanical Engineering (merged with Engineering 10 Aug 20)
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Date Deposited: 06 Oct 2016 10:00
Last Modified: 04 Sep 2021 12:26
DOI or ID number: 10.1016/j.ress.2016.07.001
URI: https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/4261
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