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Impact of anthropogenic climate change on the East Asian summer monsoon

Burke, C and Stott, P (2017) Impact of anthropogenic climate change on the East Asian summer monsoon. Journal of Climate. ISSN 0894-8755

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The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) is important for bringing rainfall to large areas of China. Historically, variations in the EASM have had major impacts including flooding and drought. We present an analysis of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on EASM rainfall in Eastern China using a newly updated attribution system. Our results suggest that anthropogenic climate change has led to an overall decrease in total monsoon rainfall over the past 65 years, and an increased number of dry days. However the model also predicts that anthropogenic forcings have caused the most extreme heavy rainfall events to become shorter in duration and more intense. With the potential for future changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions, historical trends in monsoon rainfall may not be indicative of future changes, although extreme rainfall is projected to increase over East Asia with continued warming in the region.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: 0401 Atmospheric Sciences, 0405 Oceanography
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Divisions: Astrophysics Research Institute
Publisher: Amercian Meteorological Society
Date Deposited: 05 May 2017 09:59
Last Modified: 04 Sep 2021 03:59
DOI or ID number: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0892.1
URI: https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/6359
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