Wan, C, Yang, Z, Yan, X, Zhang, D, Blanco-Davis, E and Ren, J (2020) Risk-based resilience analysis of maritime container transport networks. In: Proceedings of the 29th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2019 . (29th EUROPEAN SAFETY AND RELIABILITY CONFERENCE (ESREL 2019)?, 22 September 2019 - 26 September 2019, Hanover, Germany).

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Abstract

This paper describes a new conceptual framework to facilitate the resilience analysis of maritime container transport networks, by taking into consideration both local risk estimations of container shipping hazards and their global impacts on the overall safety performance of the whole transportation network. In the proposed framework, a series of risk assessment techniques (e.g. Fuzzy and Bayesian networks), are applied to provide a flexible way for transforming risk input information into the evaluations of individual risk factors; and network centrality measures are used to determine the vulnerability of each container shipping route within the network. Furthermore, the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm is used to aggregate the risk estimations of container shipping operations and importance of container shipping routes in a whole network collectively. Several extreme risk scenarios are set to measure the influence of risk conditions of different container shipping routes on the overall safety performance of the entire network, and the rationality and feasibility of the method are validated by using numerical case studies. The novel framework proposed in this research supports dynamic risk-based resilience analysis of maritime container transport networks. It provides a paradigm shift of resilience analysis by the integration of local level risk analysis of components and global level risk impacts of components to complex networks. It provides the solutions to rationalizing safety resources between the low prioritized hazards of the nodes of high safety impact and the high-risk hazards of the nodes of low safety impact in complex transportation networks in a quantitative manner.

Item Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications
Divisions:	Engineering
Publisher:	ESREL
Date Deposited:	26 Apr 2021 12:17
Last Modified:	13 Apr 2022 15:18
DOI or ID number:	10.3850/978-981-11-2724-3_0213-cd
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/14864

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