Thanh, PN, Van, TL, Thi, XAT, Hai, AN, Cong, CL, Gagnon, A, Pham, NT, Anh, DT and Dinh, VN (2024) Predicting drought stress under climate change in the Southern Central Highlands of Vietnam. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 196. ISSN 0167-6369

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Abstract

In the Southern Central Highlands of Vietnam, droughts occur more frequently, causing significant damage and impacting the socio-economic development of the region, especially affecting various industries and agriculture. During the dry season, rivers, streams, and reservoirs often face limited water availability, exacerbated by increasing drought severity in recent years. Recognizing the escalating severity of droughts, the study offers novel contributions by conducting a comprehensive analysis of surface water resource distribution in Lam Dong province, with a focus on assessing water demand for agricultural production, a crucial factor in ensuring sustainable crop growth. To achieve this, the study utilizes a combination of the MIKE-NAM and MIKE-HYDRO basin models, allowing for a comprehensive assessment of the water balance. Two scenarios are considered for simulation in the current-2020 (SC1) and climate change-2025 (SC2), with SC2 being based on climate change and sea level rise scenarios provided by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE). Furthermore, the study utilizes the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI) to measure drought severity, revealing prevalent dry and moderately droughty conditions in highland districts with precipitation ranging from 50% to 85%. Severe drought conditions emerge at 95% precipitation levels, indicating an increased frequency and geographic scope of severe droughts. Additionally, the study highlights that under abnormally dry conditions, water demand for the winter-spring crop is consistently met at 100%, decreasing to 85%, 80%, and less than 75% for moderate, severe, and extreme droughts, respectively. These findings offer insights into future drought conditions in the Lam Dong province and their potential impact on irrigation capacity, crucial for adaptation strategies.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: http://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-024-12798-6
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate change; droughts; MIKE models; water balance; KBDI; Environmental Sciences
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Divisions:	Biological & Environmental Sciences (from Sep 19)
Publisher:	Springer
SWORD Depositor:	A Symplectic
Date Deposited:	07 Jun 2024 09:32
Last Modified:	24 Jun 2024 09:18
DOI or ID number:	10.1007/s10661-024-12798-6
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/23445

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