Xin, X, Liu, K, Loughney, S, Wang, J, Li, H, Ekere, N and Yang, Z (2023) Multi-scale collision risk estimation for maritime traffic in complex port waters. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 240. ISSN 0951-8320

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Abstract

Ship collision risk estimation is an essential component of intelligent maritime surveillance systems. Traditional risk estimation approaches, which can only analyze traffic risk in one specific scale, reveal a significant challenge in quantifying the collision risk of a traffic scenario from different spatial scales. This is detrimental to understanding the traffic situations and supporting effective anti-collision decision-making, particularly as maritime traffic complexity grows and autonomous ships emerge. In this study, a systematic multi-scale collision risk estimation approach is newly developed to capture traffic conflict patterns under different spatial scales. It extends the application of the complex network theory and a node deletion method to quantify the interactions and dependencies among multiple ships within encounter scenarios, enabling collision risk to be evaluated at any spatial scale. Meanwhile, an advanced graph-based clustering framework is introduced to search for the optimal spatial scales for risk evaluation. Extensive numerical experiments based on AIS data in Ningbo_Zhoushan Port are implemented to evaluate the model performance. Experimental results reveal that the proposed approach can strengthen maritime situational awareness, identify high-risk areas and support strategic maritime safety management. This work therefore sheds light on improving the intelligent levels of maritime surveillance and promoting maritime traffic automation.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	01 Mathematical Sciences; 09 Engineering; 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services; Strategic, Defence & Security Studies
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering V Naval Science > VM Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering
Divisions:	Engineering
Publisher:	Elsevier
SWORD Depositor:	A Symplectic
Date Deposited:	07 Aug 2024 15:05
Last Modified:	07 Aug 2024 15:05
DOI or ID number:	10.1016/j.ress.2023.109554
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/23893

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