A dynamic modelling approach to reduce revolving fund medicine stockouts in Nigeria

Abdulkadir, R, Matellini, DB ORCID: 0000-0002-4300-7232, Jenkinson, ID, Pyne, R ORCID: 0000-0003-4661-1651, Nguyen, TT ORCID: 0000-0002-3268-1790 and Kreie, A (2025) A dynamic modelling approach to reduce revolving fund medicine stockouts in Nigeria. Supply Chain Forum, 26 (2). pp. 225-239. ISSN 1625-8312

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Abstract

Essential medicine stockouts have deleterious effects on healthcare delivery, as medicines become unavailable during life-threatening situations at the point of care for the majority of a country’s population. The increasing availability of essential medicines ensures that patients receive treatment for diseases, leading to improved health outcomes. The Drug Revolving Fund Program has been reported to increase access to funds and improve medicine availability. This study uses system dynamics modelling of an integrated essential medicine programme in Kaduna, Nigeria to identify policies that reduce stockouts and increase order fill rates. The four policies that increase fill rates include minimising medicine expiries, increasing the frequency of receivables payments, information dissemination through digital platforms, and improved digital infrastructure to build network trust with suppliers.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This is an Accepted Manuscript version of the following article, accepted for publication in Taylor and Francis Group. Abdulkadir, R., Matellini, D. B., Jenkinson, I. D., Pyne, R., Nguyen, T. T., & Kreie, A. (2025). A dynamic modelling approach to reduce revolving fund medicine stockouts in Nigeria. Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal, 26(2), 225–239. https://doi.org/10.1080/16258312.2025.2494088. It is deposited under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License (Deed - Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International - Creative Commons ), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, and is not altered, transformed, or built upon in any way.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	3509 Transportation, Logistics and Supply Chains; 35 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services; 3507 Strategy, Management and Organisational Behaviour; Clinical Research; Generic health relevance; 3 Good Health and Well Being; 3507 Strategy, management and organisational behaviour; 3509 Transportation, logistics and supply chains
Subjects:	R Medicine > R Medicine (General) T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Engineering
Publisher:	Taylor and Francis Group
Date of acceptance:	8 May 2025
Date Deposited:	03 Jun 2025 11:33
Last Modified:	03 Jul 2025 13:15
DOI or ID number:	10.1080/16258312.2025.2494088
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/26497

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