Modeling Drought Risk and Water Management Strategies in South-Central Vietnam: A Case Study of Ninh Thuan Province

Thanh, PN, Anh, DT, Van, TL, Thi, XAT, Gagnon, A ORCID: 0000-0002-1301-6015, McCord, S, Pham, NT, Quang, DT, Thanh, LTP and Dinh, VN (2025) Modeling Drought Risk and Water Management Strategies in South-Central Vietnam: A Case Study of Ninh Thuan Province. Pure and Applied Geophysics. ISSN 0033-4553

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Abstract

Basin-scale modeling plays a crucial role in informing policymakers on how to optimize water resource management. This study implements an integrated modeling framework combining MIKE NAM and MIKE HYDRO Basin to evaluate water demand, deficits, and drought risks in Ninh Thuan Province, Vietnam. The MIKE NAM model accurately simulated runoff during both calibration and validation, while MIKE HYDRO Basin effectively reproduced reservoir storage, with percent deviations ranging from -17% to nearly 29% in calibration and -6% to nearly 8% in validation. The validated models were then applied to assess drought conditions under two periods: a 2017 baseline (SCE1) and a 2030 projection incorporating climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SCE2). Results indicate a significant increase in water demand under SCE2, primarily driven by CC. Agriculture and livestock remained the dominant water users, with agriculture alone accounting for over 70% of total demand in both periods, reflecting growing stress on water resources. Drought risk assessment showed increased spatial extent and severity, with conditions ranging from abnormally dry to extreme, especially in the agriculture-dependent districts of Thuan Nam and Thuan Bac. The analysis also revealed that the current infrastructure under SCE1 is insufficient for sustainable water management. While infrastructure enhancements were introduced in SCE2, their effectiveness varied: drought impacts were reduced in Thuan Bac but worsened in Thuan Nam. These findings provide critical insights into future regional drought dynamics and highlight the urgent need for localized, adaptive strategies to address CC impacts and ensure long-term water security in Ninh Thuan.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This version of the article has been accepted for publication, after peer review (when applicable) and is subject to Springer Nature’s AM terms of use, but is not the Version of Record and does not reflect post-acceptance improvements, or any corrections. The Version of Record is available online at: http://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-025-03763-6
Uncontrolled Keywords:	MIKE HYDRO basin; water demand; water balance; climate change; drought; 0103 Numerical and Computational Mathematics; 0404 Geophysics; Geochemistry & Geophysics; 3706 Geophysics
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Divisions:	Biological and Environmental Sciences (from Sep 19)
Publisher:	Springer
Date of acceptance:	16 June 2025
Date Deposited:	17 Jun 2025 10:41
Last Modified:	03 Jul 2025 13:00
DOI or ID number:	10.1007/s00024-025-03763-6
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/26600

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