Ecological Risk–Benefit Analysis for Assisted Colonization

D'Andrea, R ORCID: 0000-0001-9687-6178, Barabás, G ORCID: 0000-0002-7355-3664, Dalrymple, SE ORCID: 0000-0002-6806-855X, Foden, W ORCID: 0000-0002-8839-8740, Genovesi, P ORCID: 0000-0002-0262-1420, Krishnadas, M ORCID: 0000-0003-2231-9787, Leibold, MA ORCID: 0000-0003-3954-3187, McPeek, MA ORCID: 0000-0001-7794-9466, Moehrenschlager, A ORCID: 0000-0003-2789-0376, Rodriguez, JP ORCID: 0000-0001-5019-2870 and Akçakaya, HR ORCID: 0000-0002-8679-5929 (2025) Ecological Risk–Benefit Analysis for Assisted Colonization. Global Change Biology, 31 (11). e70613. ISSN 1354-1013

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Abstract

Assisted colonization (AC), translocating a species outside its indigenous range to avoid its extinction, is one of the few conservation options for some species. It is also controversial because of the history of ecological impacts of invasive species, including the extinction of native species as a result of novel ecological interactions resulting from the introduction. Although several national and international organizations have issued guidelines related to AC, none allow case-specific decision-making based on risks and benefits to biodiversity. We propose a two-pronged approach to fill this gap. The first step aims to separate clear-cut cases of AC from those that require an in-depth risk analysis. We propose a set of seven qualitative criteria to identify AC projects that are clearly low-risk and high-benefit, and therefore should not be controversial, and those that are clearly high-risk or low-benefit and therefore should not be attempted. This identifies only the most obvious cases, leaving out many cases to be determined through a quantitative analysis to estimate the probabilities of extirpation of the resident species because of AC, which is the second step of our approach. We propose a roadmap for developing such a system based on community ecology theory, and a framework for considering the estimated probabilities in a global context. Our framework recommends an AC project only if it would result in a larger number of globally extant species than a scenario of no action. We propose large-scale testing of the clear-cut approach, further development of the quantitative approach, and wide consultation for adopting international guidelines for risk assessment of AC projects.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: D'Andrea, R., G. Barabás, S. E. Dalrymple, et al. 2025. “ Ecological Risk–Benefit Analysis for Assisted Colonization.” Global Change Biology 31, no. 11: e70613., which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.70613. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Use of Self-Archived Versions. This article may not be enhanced, enriched or otherwise transformed into a derivative work, without express permission from Wiley or by statutory rights under applicable legislation. Copyright notices must not be removed, obscured or modified. The article must be linked to Wiley’s version of record on Wiley Online Library and any embedding, framing or otherwise making available the article or pages thereof by third parties from platforms, services and websites other than Wiley Online Library must be prohibited.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Risk Assessment; Conservation of Natural Resources; Ecosystem; Biodiversity; Extinction, Biological; Introduced Species; assisted migration; conservation translocations; disordered systems theory; ensemble ecosystem models; extinction risk; managed relocation; novel communities; species coexistence; structural stability methods; trait‐based tournament models; Risk Assessment; Introduced Species; Conservation of Natural Resources; Biodiversity; Extinction, Biological; Ecosystem; 41 Environmental Sciences; 31 Biological Sciences; 3103 Ecology; Risk Assessment; Introduced Species; Conservation of Natural Resources; Biodiversity; Extinction, Biological; Ecosystem; 05 Environmental Sciences; 06 Biological Sciences; Ecology; 31 Biological sciences; 37 Earth sciences; 41 Environmental sciences
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology
Divisions:	Biological and Environmental Sciences (from Sep 19)
Publisher:	Wiley
Date of acceptance:	7 November 2025
Date Deposited:	05 Jan 2026 13:36
Last Modified:	05 Jan 2026 13:36
DOI or ID number:	10.1111/gcb.70613
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/27834

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