A Holistic Risk-Informed Framework for Port Resilience Assessment

Mohsendokhtamlashi, M (2026) A Holistic Risk-Informed Framework for Port Resilience Assessment. Doctoral thesis, Liverpool John Moores University.

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Abstract

Seaports are critical hubs underpinning global trade and play a significant role in ensuring economic stability through their influence on global logistics and supply chains. However, they remain highly susceptible to various disruptive events, including natural disasters, human-induced accidents, maritime terrorism, and cyber threats, each capable of causing substantial economic and operational disturbances. Given the increasing frequency and severity of these hazards, driven notably by climate change, enhancing seaport resilience has emerged as an essential focus within maritime research and practice. This dissertation addresses critical gaps identified through a comprehensive literature review and analysis, proposing an integrated, holistic framework designed to enhance resilience in seaport operations in a holistic way. The study begins with an extensive review of existing resilience assessment methodologies, critically analysing their strengths, limitations, and applicability to maritime infrastructure. The review identifies a significant overlap among existing frameworks and highlights a persistent need for a standardized, comprehensive, and integrated approach to seaport resilience. Building upon this foundation, the research introduces a novel maritime security risk assessment methodology specifically designed to address physical threats, particularly maritime terrorism. Utilizing a data-driven Bayesian Network (BN) model informed by empirical data from maritime terrorist incidents over two decades, this approach uncovers significant contributing factors and their interdependencies. Validation through sensitivity, performance-metric, and comparative analyses demonstrates the model's robust diagnostic and predictive capabilities, offering practical insights to stakeholders for enhancing security and preparedness. Complementing the assessment of physical threats, the dissertation formulates a novel cybersecurity risk analysis framework. Leveraging a comprehensive dataset of maritime cyber incidents, the developed BN model facilitates the identification of critical risk factors, interdependencies, and their probabilities of occurrence. Rigorous validation further establishes the model's efficacy in diagnosing cybersecurity vulnerabilities and predicting future threats, thereby providing stakeholders with valuable information for strategic cybersecurity resource allocation. Recognizing the complexity of socio-technical interactions within seaports, this study also employs an innovative systemic risk analysis framework grounded in the Safety-II concept. Integrating the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) with BN, alongside sophisticated analytical techniques, the framework aids in quantitative assessment of performance variability across technological, human, and organizational functions. Applied to seaport operations, this systemic approach significantly enhances the management and quantification of risks in complex operational environments. Further, the research develops a holistic, risk-informed resilience assessment framework using advanced simulation techniques. Addressing natural hazards as the primary focus, this simulation-based approach evaluates both direct physical impacts and indirect economic losses resulting from disruptions. Realistic hazard scenarios and historical case studies demonstrate the framework's effectiveness in capturing a wide range of disruption scenarios, informing resilience-enhancing strategies, and optimizing recovery processes. In synthesizing these methodologies, the dissertation provides a robust and practical holistic framework that integrates safety, security, and resilience assessments into a unified system. The resulting framework represents a pioneering advancement in maritime risk and resilience management, systematically addressing the multifaceted nature of seaport vulnerabilities. This integrated approach equips policymakers, port authorities, and maritime stakeholders with actionable insights, facilitating informed decision-making for proactive risk mitigation, operational continuity, and long-term sustainability. Overall, this dissertation contributes significantly to maritime research and practice by delivering an innovative, holistic resilience analysis framework capable of systematically addressing the evolving landscape of threats to seaport operations. Through its integrated methodological approach, it offers critical guidance for enhancing resilience, safeguarding maritime operations, and ensuring the sustainability of critical global trade infrastructures amid increasing uncertainty and risk.

Item Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Safety; Security; Resilience; Risk; Port; Maritime
Subjects:	Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Divisions:	Engineering
Date of acceptance:	17 February 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	13 April 2026
Date Deposited:	13 Apr 2026 13:22
Last Modified:	13 Apr 2026 13:22
DOI or ID number:	10.24377/LJMU.t.00028187
Supervisors:	Yang, Z, Kontovas, C, Chang, C-H and Qu, Z
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/28187

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