A Risk-Based simulation approach to assessing seaport resilience against cyclone hazards

Mohsendokht, M ORCID: 0000-0003-2271-6838, Mokhtari-Moghadam, A, Li, H ORCID: 0000-0002-4293-4763, Kontovas, C ORCID: 0000-0001-9461-6436, Chang, C-H ORCID: 0000-0002-7351-8471, Qu, Z ORCID: 0000-0001-9241-9332 and Yang, Z ORCID: 0000-0003-1385-493X (2026) A Risk-Based simulation approach to assessing seaport resilience against cyclone hazards. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 154. ISSN 1361-9209

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Abstract

Seaports face intensifying cyclone risks due to climate change, yet comprehensive risk-based approaches quantifying the probability and consequences of such impacts on port functionality and economic performance remain scarce. This study integrates probabilistic modelling of cyclone occurrence with asset-level fragility and downtime analysis to estimate functional degradation while quantifying direct physical damage and associated economic impacts on port operations. The Port of Kaohsiung, in southwestern Taiwan, serves as the case study, drawing on terminal records and historical cyclone data to simulate throughput loss under varying cyclone types and intensities. The research findings enable port authorities to assess port capacity to withstand and recover from disruptions and to design targeted adaptation and restoration strategies. By combining realistic data, advanced simulation, and a holistic resilience perspective, this study makes significant contributions to the development of a cost-effective decision-support tool for long-term port sustainability.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	0502 Environmental Science and Management; 1205 Urban and Regional Planning; 1507 Transportation and Freight Services; Logistics & Transportation; 3304 Urban and regional planning; 3509 Transportation, logistics and supply chains
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering
Divisions:	Engineering Liverpool Business School
Publisher:	Elsevier
Date of acceptance:	17 February 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	5 March 2026
Date Deposited:	05 Mar 2026 16:03
Last Modified:	05 Mar 2026 16:03
DOI or ID number:	10.1016/j.trd.2026.105291
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/28191

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