Assessing the hazard of saltwater intrusion in coastal regions of the Red-Thai Binh River Basin, Vietnam

Vu, TT ORCID: 0009-0003-9473-8558, Nguyen, MD ORCID: 0000-0002-5234-6244, Nguyen, VD ORCID: 0009-0004-3513-0312 and Gagnon, AS ORCID: 0000-0002-1301-6015 (2026) Assessing the hazard of saltwater intrusion in coastal regions of the Red-Thai Binh River Basin, Vietnam. Water Practice &Technology.

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Abstract

The Red–Thai Binh River Basin in Vietnam faces severe saltwater intrusion, exacerbated by climate change, upstream water use, and inadequate reservoir management. During the dry season, reduced upstream discharge leads to higher salinity at sluice gates, thereby limiting the duration of the water supply. This study aims to assess and classify saltwater intrusion hazards in the basin under varying MIKE11 model upstream-flow and sea-level-rise scenarios. To achieve this, a multi-step framework was applied. First, the model was used to simulate saltwater intrusion dynamics, with calibration results showing strong performance (NSE = 0.72–0.92) and salinity deviations of less than 2.18‰. Second, simulated outputs were used to calculate average salinity at the commune level, enabling localised analysis. Third, a hazard classification system was developed by integrating average salinity levels with water-supply duration at sluice gates, thereby capturing both water-quality and availability constraints. The approach was applied to 15 scenarios across 243 coastal communes in the Nam Dinh and Thai Binh provinces, accounting for the combined effects of upstream discharge conditions and projected sea-level rise. The results reveal distinct spatial variations in saltwater intrusion hazards. In Nam Dinh Province, approximately 40–50% of communes were classified as having moderate-to-high hazard levels, indicating significant vulnerability. In contrast, in Thai Binh Province, most communes were classified below moderate hazard levels, suggesting comparatively lower risk. Overall, the findings identify priority areas where saltwater intrusion poses the greatest challenges and provide a basis for targeted adaptive management and improved water resource planning.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	3707 Hydrology; 4004 Chemical engineering; 4104 Environmental management
Subjects:	G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Divisions:	Biological and Environmental Sciences (from Sep 19)
Publisher:	IWA Publishing
Date of acceptance:	13 May 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	25 July 2026
Date Deposited:	24 Jul 2026 13:06
Last Modified:	25 Jul 2026 00:50
DOI or ID number:	10.2166/wpt.2026.379
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/29059

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