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Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis.

Alyami, H and Yang, Z and Riahi, R and Bonsall, S and Wang, J (2016) Advanced uncertainty modelling for container port risk analysis. Accident Analysis and Prevention. ISSN 0001-4575

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Abstract

Globalization has led to a rapid increase of container movements in seaports. Risks in seaports need to be appropriately addressed to ensure economic wealth, operational efficiency, and personnel safety. As a result, the safety performance of a Container Terminal Operational System (CTOS) plays a growing role in improving the efficiency of international trade. This paper proposes a novel method to facilitate the application of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) in assessing the safety performance of CTOS. The new approach is developed through incorporating a Fuzzy Rule-Based Bayesian Network (FRBN) with Evidential Reasoning (ER) in a complementary manner. The former provides a realistic and flexible method to describe input failure information for risk estimates of individual hazardous events (HEs) at the bottom level of a risk analysis hierarchy. The latter is used to aggregate HEs safety estimates collectively, allowing dynamic risk-based decision support in CTOS from a systematic perspective. The novel feature of the proposed method, compared to those in traditional port risk analysis lies in a dynamic model capable of dealing with continually changing operational conditions in ports. More importantly, a new sensitivity analysis method is developed and carried out to rank the HEs by taking into account their specific risk estimations (locally) and their Risk Influence (RI) to a port's safety system (globally). Due to its generality, the new approach can be tailored for a wide range of applications in different safety and reliability engineering and management systems, particularly when real time risk ranking is required to measure, predict, and improve the associated system safety performance.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: 1117 Public Health And Health Services, 1507 Transportation And Freight Services, 1701 Psychology
Subjects: T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering
Divisions: Maritime and Mechanical Engineering
Publisher: Elsevier
Related URLs:
Date Deposited: 13 Oct 2016 08:19
Last Modified: 07 Sep 2017 13:01
DOI or Identification number: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.08.007
URI: http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/4601

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