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A New Statistical Approach to Select Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog

Keshtpoor, M, Carnacina, I and Yablonsky, RM A New Statistical Approach to Select Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog. Journal of Waterway, Port, Coastal, and Ocean Engineering. ISSN 0733-950X (Accepted)

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Abstract

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the major storm surge-producing events along the Northwest European coastline. To evaluate the storm surge risk covering the return period up to 10,000 years in this region, a stochastic catalog is developed by perturbing European historical ETCs. Numerical simulation of the storm surge generated by the full 10,000-year stochastic catalog, however, is computationally expensive. Also, not all the stochastic ETC events are surge-producing storms. Here, we propose an efficient statistical approach to filter the stochastic catalog by estimating the storm surge elevation at tide gauges and then selecting only the non negligible surge-producing events. The proposed approach reduces the number of stochastic storms that need to be numerically simulated by 78%, thereby saving computational resources for high-resolution numerical simulations of surge producing storms.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: 0911 Maritime Engineering, 0905 Civil Engineering, 0403 Geology
Subjects: T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering
Divisions: Civil Engineering
Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
Date Deposited: 27 Sep 2018 11:00
Last Modified: 27 Sep 2018 19:28
URI: http://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/9344

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