Liu, Z, Wang, X, Cao, W, Wang, J, Fang, S and Loughney, S (2024) Quantitative Analysis of Risk Influential Factors of Evacuation Accidents for Passenger Ships. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, 11 (1).

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Abstract

With the increasing use of passenger ships in passenger transport and tourism sighting, the risk of evacuation accidents is higher. To prevent such accidents and reduce casualties, a quantitative analysis method for identifying and evaluating risk influential factors (RIFs) of evacuation accidents is developed by integrating complex network (CN), decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL), and interpretive structural modeling (ISM) methods. Firstly, 27 RIFs are identified by extracting accident casual chain from global emergency evacuation reports of large passenger ships, and a network model for evacuation accidents is constructed. Secondly, CN is used to conduct a topological analysis of these identified RIFs from a global perspective, and robustness analysis under different attack modes is used to validate the ranking of these RIFs. Finally, DEMATEL and ISM are used to establish a multilayer structure model, 12 key RIFs are identified from causal relationship and structural perspectives, and countermeasures are proposed to mitigate these RIFs. By identifying these key RIFs, this study aims to deepen the understanding of evacuation risk management, provide a theoretical basis for emergency decision makers, optimize the evacuation process, and reduce casualties.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This material may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the American Society of Civil Engineers. This material may be found at https://doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1454
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Maritime safety; Emergency evacuation; Risk analysis; Machine learning; Complex network; Decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL); Interpretive structural modeling (ISM); 4005 Civil Engineering; 40 Engineering; Physical Injury - Accidents and Adverse Effects; 3 Good Health and Well Being; 0905 Civil Engineering; 4005 Civil engineering
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General) V Naval Science > VM Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering
Divisions:	Engineering
Publisher:	American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE)
SWORD Depositor:	A Symplectic
Date Deposited:	24 Apr 2025 09:42
Last Modified:	24 Apr 2025 09:45
DOI or ID number:	10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1454
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/26238

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