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Tsuboi, M, Sztepanacz, J, De Lisle, S, Voje, KL, Grabowski, M, Hopkins, MJ, Porto, A, Balk, M, Pontarp, M, Rossoni, D, Hildesheim, LS, Horta-Lacueva, QJ-B, Hohmann, N, Holstad, A, Lürig, M, Milocco, L, Nilén, S, Passarotto, A, Svensson, EI, Villegas, C , Winslott, E, Liow, LH, Hunt, G, Love, AC and Houle, D (2024) The Paradox of Predictability Provides a Bridge Between Micro- and Macroevolution. Journal of evolutionary biology. ISSN 1010-061X
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The Paradox of Predictability Provides a Bridge Between Micro- and Macroevolution.pdf - Accepted Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (1MB) | Preview |
Abstract
The relationship between the evolutionary dynamics observed in contemporary populations (microevolution) and evolution on timescales of millions of years (macroevolution) has been a topic of considerable debate. Historically, this debate centers on inconsistencies between microevolutionary processes and macroevolutionary patterns. Here, we characterize a striking exception: emerging evidence indicates that standing variation in contemporary populations and macroevolutionary rates of phenotypic divergence are often positively correlated. This apparent consistency between micro- and macroevolution is paradoxical because it contradicts our previous understanding of phenotypic evolution and is so far unexplained. Here, we explore the prospects for bridging evolutionary timescales through an examination of this "paradox of predictability." We begin by explaining why the divergence-variance correlation is a paradox, followed by data analysis to show that the correlation is a general phenomenon across a broad range of temporal scales, from a few generations to tens of millions of years. Then we review complementary approaches from quantitative-genetics, comparative morphology, evo-devo, and paleontology to argue that they can help to address the paradox from the shared vantage point of recent work on evolvability. In conclusion, we recommend a methodological orientation that combines different kinds of short-term and long-term data using multiple analytical frameworks in an interdisciplinary research program. Such a program will increase our general understanding about how evolution works within and across timescales.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | evolutionary prediction; evolvability; genotype-phenotype map; macroevolution; phenotypic integration; phylogenetic comparative methods; quantitative genetics; time-series analysis; 0602 Ecology; 0603 Evolutionary Biology; 0608 Zoology; Evolutionary Biology |
| Subjects: | Q Science > QH Natural history > QH301 Biology |
| Divisions: | Biological & Environmental Sciences (from Sep 19) |
| Publisher: | Oxford University Press (OUP) |
| SWORD Depositor: | A Symplectic |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Sep 2024 14:55 |
| Last Modified: | 23 Sep 2024 15:00 |
| DOI or ID number: | 10.1093/jeb/voae103 |
| URI: | https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/24235 |
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