Systemic Risk Analysis of Complex Socio-Technical Systems from the Safety-II Perspective

Mohsendokht, M, Li, H ORCID: 0000-0002-4293-4763, Kontovas, C ORCID: 0000-0001-9461-6436, Chang, C-H ORCID: 0000-0002-7351-8471, Qu, Z ORCID: 0000-0001-9241-9332 and Yang, Z ORCID: 0000-0003-1385-493X (2026) Systemic Risk Analysis of Complex Socio-Technical Systems from the Safety-II Perspective. Reliability Engineering & System Safety. p. 112200. ISSN 0951-8320

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Abstract

Modern complex socio-technical systems demand systemic risk analysis approaches that can holistically address the interdependencies between human, technological, and organizational components. Traditional models often fall short in capturing the dynamic and emergent nature of these interactions. This study introduces a novel, integrated risk analysis framework grounded in the Safety-II paradigm, which emphasizes understanding how systems succeed under varying conditions rather than focusing solely on failure. The proposed methodology combines the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) with Bayesian Networks to overcome FRAM’s qualitative limitations and enable quantitative assessment of performance variability. The framework is further enriched by integrating complementary techniques, including Monte Carlo Simulation and canonical probabilistic models. This holistic toolkit enables a rigorous and scalable approach for modelling uncertainty and systemic variability across complex operational environments. The methodology is demonstrated through a case study of seaport operations, a representative example of a complex socio-technical system. The results show that the integrated Safety-II-informed framework improves the quantification of systemic risk and enhances the capacity to manage complexity and uncertainty in real-world settings.
Keywords
Systemic risk; Complex socio-technical system: Safety II; FRAM; Bayesian Network; Seaport Operations

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	01 Mathematical Sciences; 09 Engineering; 15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services; Strategic, Defence & Security Studies; 35 Commerce, management, tourism and services; 40 Engineering; 49 Mathematical sciences
Subjects:	V Naval Science > V Naval Science (General) V Naval Science > VM Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering
Divisions:	Engineering Liverpool Business School
Publisher:	Elsevier BV
Date of acceptance:	5 January 2026
Date of first compliant Open Access:	13 January 2026
Date Deposited:	13 Jan 2026 11:04
Last Modified:	13 Jan 2026 11:04
DOI or ID number:	10.1016/j.ress.2026.112200
URI:	https://researchonline.ljmu.ac.uk/id/eprint/27891

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